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 bias-variance trade-off


On Variance Reduction in Learning Mean Flows

arXiv.org Machine Learning

One-step generative modeling has emerged as a leading approach to amortize the inference cost of diffusion and flow-matching models. Among distillation-free methods, MeanFlow training is notoriously unstable, with non-decreasing loss and unbounded gradient variance. In this work, we establish a theory that attributes this pathology to a misuse of the conditional velocity field: it plays two distinct statistical roles in the loss, both as an unbiased regression target and as a Monte Carlo control variate inside a Jacobi-vector product, with the original loss assigning the wrong coefficient to the latter. We derive the optimal coefficient in closed form, and show that a family of fixes in concurrent works corresponds to different practical realizations of the same optimum. A controlled sweep of this coefficient on two-dimensional benchmarks and on a latent Diffusion Transformer recovers the predicted bias-variance ordering. The optimal coefficient yields up to a %54 improvement in sample quality on two-dimensional benchmarks and a monotone FID trend at every matched-step DiT checkpoint. Crucially, the same DiT measurement also reveals a quantitative FID-MSE landscape mismatch: although gradient variance is minimized at an interior coefficient value, the coefficient that minimizes FID prefers the direct use of conditional velocity.


On the Dimensionality of Word Embedding

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we provide a theoretical understanding of word embedding and its dimensionality. Motivated by the unitary-invariance of word embedding, we propose the Pairwise Inner Product (PIP) loss, a novel metric on the dissimilarity between word embeddings. Using techniques from matrix perturbation theory, we reveal a fundamental bias-variance trade-off in dimensionality selection for word embeddings. This bias-variance trade-off sheds light on many empirical observations which were previously unexplained, for example the existence of an optimal dimensionality. Moreover, new insights and discoveries, like when and how word embeddings are robust to over-fitting, are revealed. By optimizing over the bias-variance trade-off of the PIP loss, we can explicitly answer the open question of dimensionality selection for word embedding.





Don't Generate Me: Training Differentially Private Generative Models with Sinkhorn Divergence

Neural Information Processing Systems

Although machine learning models trained on massive data have led to breakthroughs in several areas, their deployment in privacy-sensitive domains remains limited due to restricted access to data. Generative models trained with privacy constraints on private data can sidestep this challenge, providing indirect access to private data instead. We propose DP-Sinkhorn, a novel optimal transport-based generative method for learning data distributions from private data with differential privacy. DP-Sinkhorn minimizes the Sinkhorn divergence, a computationally efficient approximation to the exact optimal transport distance, between the model and data in a differentially private manner and uses a novel technique for controlling the bias-variance trade-off of gradient estimates. Unlike existing approaches for training differentially private generative models, which are mostly based on generative adversarial networks, we do not rely on adversarial objectives, which are notoriously difficult to optimize, especially in the presence of noise imposed by privacy constraints. Hence, DP-Sinkhorn is easy to train and deploy. Experimentally, we improve upon the state-of-the-art on multiple image modeling benchmarks and show differentially private synthesis of informative RGB images.



Bayesian Active Learning with Fully Bayesian Gaussian Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

The bias-variance trade-off is a well-known problem in machine learning that only gets more pronounced the less available data there is. In active learning, where labeled data is scarce or difficult to obtain, neglecting this trade-off can cause inefficient and non-optimal querying, leading to unnecessary data labeling. In this paper, we focus on active learning with Gaussian Processes (GPs). For the GP, the bias-variance trade-off is made by optimization of the two hyperparameters: the length scale and noise-term. Considering that the optimal mode of the joint posterior of the hyperparameters is equivalent to the optimal bias-variance trade-off, we approximate this joint posterior and utilize it to design two new acquisition functions. The first one is a Bayesian variant of Query-by-Committee (B-QBC), and the second is an extension that explicitly minimizes the predictive variance through a Query by Mixture of Gaussian Processes (QB-MGP) formulation. Across six simulators, we empirically show that B-QBC, on average, achieves the best marginal likelihood, whereas QB-MGP achieves the best predictive performance. We show that incorporating the bias-variance trade-off in the acquisition functions mitigates unnecessary and expensive data labeling.


Bias-Variance Trade-off for Clipped Stochastic First-Order Methods: From Bounded Variance to Infinite Mean

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stochastic optimization is fundamental to modern machine learning. Recent research has extended the study of stochastic first-order methods (SFOMs) from light-tailed to heavy-tailed noise, which frequently arises in practice, with clipping emerging as a key technique for controlling heavy-tailed gradients. Extensive theoretical advances have further shown that the oracle complexity of SFOMs depends on the tail index $α$ of the noise. Nonetheless, existing complexity results often cover only the case $α\in (1,2]$, that is, the regime where the noise has a finite mean, while the complexity bounds tend to infinity as $α$ approaches $1$. This paper tackles the general case of noise with tail index $α\in(0,2]$, covering regimes ranging from noise with bounded variance to noise with an infinite mean, where the latter case has been scarcely studied. Through a novel analysis of the bias-variance trade-off in gradient clipping, we show that when a symmetry measure of the noise tail is controlled, clipped SFOMs achieve improved complexity guarantees in the presence of heavy-tailed noise for any tail index $α\in (0,2]$. Our analysis of the bias-variance trade-off not only yields new unified complexity guarantees for clipped SFOMs across this full range of tail indices, but is also straightforward to apply and can be combined with classical analyses under light-tailed noise to establish oracle complexity guarantees under heavy-tailed noise. Finally, numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.


On the Dimensionality of Word Embedding

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we provide a theoretical understanding of word embedding and its dimensionality. Motivated by the unitary-invariance of word embedding, we propose the Pairwise Inner Product (PIP) loss, a novel metric on the dissimilarity between word embeddings. Using techniques from matrix perturbation theory, we reveal a fundamental bias-variance trade-off in dimensionality selection for word embeddings. This bias-variance trade-off sheds light on many empirical observations which were previously unexplained, for example the existence of an optimal dimensionality. Moreover, new insights and discoveries, like when and how word embeddings are robust to over-fitting, are revealed. By optimizing over the bias-variance trade-off of the PIP loss, we can explicitly answer the open question of dimensionality selection for word embedding.